Commercial avionics markets are beginning to bounce back from a prolonged economic crisis that saw airlines consolidate their operations and restructure their business. Aircraft deliveries are rising; new aircraft programmes are gaining momentum, and are expected to have an overwhelming impact on air transport. At the same, time parked aircrafts are in need of reconditioning, which will positively affect the avionic retrofit business. With the implementation of requirement-driven programmes, which are going to push avionics spending further, global consultancy Frost & Sullivan expects significant development in the global avionics market in the coming years.
Diogenis Papiomytis, Principal Consultant at Aerospace, Defence & Security group, Frost & Sullivan, explains: "In light of all of the market drivers, we should expect a substantial increase in avionics spending for years to come. However, with the economy still at a fragile state, with oil prices pushing through the $100-110/barrel barrier and airlines announcing further capacity cuts to cope with fuel prices and new aviation taxes, there is great uncertainty among industry stakeholders."
The average market growth is forecast at 5.2 percent, with highest spending happening in the period 2014-2020, as the Boeing 787 reaches full production levels, and the Airbus A350 and Comac C919 are being introduced. A depressed retrofit market will outperform new sales and parts & services, owing its growth to major retrofit programmes in Europe and the US.
A key focus for incumbents is the interoperability and integration of communication systems and components. New developments, with improvements across air traffic control ground stations, include Eurocontrol's implementation of Controller-Pilot Data-Link Communications (CPDLC) and Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B). An increasing number of airlines are signing up to these programmes, in the promise of substantial efficiencies from better airspace utilisation.
"The surveillance segment will play an important role in the industry, driving both the forward fit and retrofit avionics markets," adds Mr. Papiomytis. "Operator requirements for commonality across supplier systems will push suppliers to create global industry standards, particularly in regards to central display controllers. As with all other segments, standardisation will come via the co-operation of end-users and suppliers, rather than regulatory authorities."
The Big Three global avionics suppliers: Honeywell, Rockwell Collins, and Thales are still the industry's dominant forces, even though their leadership will be challenged by a number of companies emerging from niche segments; Business Avionics and Military Avionics.
Economic woes and uncertainties over the future, especially concerning fuel prices and new aviation taxes, may impact much needed modernisation programmes for airlines and commercial operators. However, the market is also entering a new development phase, as regulatory authorities in the US and Europe strive to create efficiencies in the skies and on the ground. Diogenis Papiomytis concludes: "In the meantime, market consolidation will put pressure on smaller market participants to either partner for market share or further evolve in their niche segments. Mergers and acquisitions activity will intensify."
If you would like to learn more about growth prospects in Commercial Avionics Markets, please contact Joanna Lewandowska, at Joanna.lewandowska[.]frost.com, with your full contact details.
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