The previous assumptions of vehicle needs and specifications are no longer applicable, which complicates the scenario for manufacturers. Now, vehicle manufacturers will need leaner operations and forays into niche markets to sustain growth.
Analysis from Frost & Sullivan (aerospace.frost.com), U.S. Military Tactical Vehicles Market, finds that the market earned revenues of $4.45 billion in 2010 and estimates this to drop to $0.74 billion in 2015 with the expectation that a market recovery will occur by 2020. The research covers the following segments: light, medium and heavy tactical vehicles and armored security vehicles.
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"While market growth will be negative over the next five years, growth will occur in individual parts of the market, " notes Frost & Sullivan industry manager Wayne Plucker. "Notable in this area will be MRAP- All Terrain Vehicles (M-ATV), which will be the sustaining contract group."
Purchases of medium and heavy tactical vehicles are ending. The large purchases of MRAP vehicles are complete, other than M-ATV. These vehicles diminish the need for a follow-on vehicle to the HMMWV (Humvee).
As the U.S. military forces trim procurements, the number of vehicle manufacturers with active contracts declined to a handful. Vehicle manufacturers must look to the services and retrofit markets for any growth until the new designs receive funds from the U.S. military.
"The large purchases of vehicles for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have filled the military's need for replacement vehicles, " cautions Plucker. "Budget constraints will limit replacement designs. Vehicle providers will suffer through the effects on these markets."
Tactical vehicle production is likely to decline to 54 percent by 2011 and current program funding is not likely to restore funding authority until 2015. That will severely challenge vehicle manufacturers.
The current state of the equipment in operation will necessitate a reappraisal of funding after a force reset is complete. In general, new designs could offer opportunities, but the timing may be long.
"Joint light tactical vehicle (JLTV) may be one of the cost-saving losses and is almost guaranteed to be slowed from the original timelines, " adds Plucker. "Rebuilds of HMMWVs on a selective basis and M-ATV will fill immediate needs."
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U.S Military Tactical Vehicles Market / N8E6