In the short term, the market will shrink by at least 5 per cent to 10 per cent due to the poor state of generation capacity, decreasing demand for electricity and subsequent revisions of investment programmes. Fortunately, modernisation needs are huge and there is still a substantial backlog of orders. Some companies have announced that they will not cease investments, thus recovery will start in 2010-2011.
New analysis from Frost & Sullivan (industrialautomation.frost.com), Where Modernisation Is a Must – Strategic Analysis Shows Important Growth Opportunities for Automation and Control Solutions in the Russian Power Generation Sector, finds that the size of the market, which is currently at $115 million, is expected to reach almost $250 million in 2020, in a realistic scenario. A more optimistic scenario pegs the revenues for 2020 at over $430 million. The study covers Distributed Control System (DCS), Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA), Programmable Logic Controller (PLC) and Human Machine Interface (HMI) technologies for thermal, hydro and nuclear power plants.
“The still ongoing crisis is expected to make electricity companies consider solutions that are cheaper, even at the cost of lower effectiveness, which favours Russian companies and their SCADA systems,” says Frost & Sullivan Program Manager Karthikeyan Balasubramaniyam.
As the core sector for energy generation, thermal power plants are likely to experience largest investment, including investments into ACS. Complex DCS systems are likely to create the largest part of installed ACS, as they will be installed in newly erected plants. SCADA/HMI also has large potential, mostly in modernisation of existing plants or smaller-capacity units. Interesting opportunities exist for small-scale systems in hydro power plants.
“Currently, most hydro power plants (HPPs) in Russia have SCADA/HMI and PLC solutions installed,” explains Balasubramaniyam. “In large plants, the process of modernising automation equipment is gradual, and in small power plants, cost is an issue preventing operators from investing in DCS and making them opt for SCADA –where local participants hold a strong position due to lower cost of their solutions.”
However, in new large-scale projects, DCS is likely to find its way. This is particularly true in the nuclear sector. Furthermore, auxiliary processes – mostly in existing nuclear power plants – are an opportunity for SCADA/HMI systems, though of much smaller value than installations in Greenfield projects.
Going forward, integration services will prove vital. As there are many available solutions in the market and automation systems in many plants were installed slowly and gradually, they bear a fragmented character.
“If the industry is to implement high-level ACS, a lot of effort will have to be put into integrating existing low-level solutions to ensure comprehensive control over a plant,” says Balasubramaniyam. “Forming partnerships with local ACS companies will be advantageous for foreign participants.”
This move will provide the latter with opportunities to strengthen their service coverage, encourage the uptake of foreign complex systems, leverage existing contracts and relationships and educate customers more easily, besides other competitive advantages. Partnerships will also help in lobbying among power generation companies to make them appreciate the benefits of complex ACS.
If you are interested in more information on this study, please send an email to Joanna Lewandowska, Corporate Communications, at joanna.lewandowska[.]frost.com, with your full name, company name, title, phone number, company email address, company website, city, state and country.
Where Modernisation Is a Must – Strategic Analysis Shows Important Growth Opportunities for Automation and Control Solutions in the Russian Power Generation Sector is part of the Industrial Automation & Process Control Growth Partnership Services programme, which also includes research in the following markets: Automation and Control Solutions Market in Eastern Europe, EMEA Automation and Control Solution Services Market, World Programmable Logic Controllers Factbook, World Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Market, and World Distributed Control System Market. All research services included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends that have been evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.
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Where Modernisation Is a Must – Strategic Analysis Shows Important Growth Opportunities for Automation and Control Solutions in the Russian Power Generation Sector / M43E-10