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Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, 07/09/2008 – DOE’s International Energy Outlook 2008 presents an assessment of international markets through 2030, and projects that marketed energy consumption around the world will grow by 50% between 2005 and 2030 under a reference case. The reference case does not include the impact of specific policies in any country to limit carbon emissions or to mitigate climate change.
Worldwide, consumption of both hydroelectric and emerging renewables will increase by 2.1% per year until 2030, while coal consumption increases by 2.0%, natural gas by 1.7%, nuclear by 1.5% and liquids by 1.2% per year.
In Canada, the total consumption of renewable energies was 3.7 quadrillion Btu in 2005, and will rise to 4.1 quad in 2010, 4.6 in 2015, 4.9 in 2020, 5.2 in 2025 and 5.5 quads in 2030. In the residential and commercial sectors, renewables are too small to be shown at any time during the forecast period while, for electricity, renewables grow by 1.6% per year compared with 1.7% for nuclear and 1.5% for natural gas. The quantity of green power in Canada in 2005 was 3.7 quad, and will grow to 4.1 quad in 2010, 4.5 in 2015, 4.9 in 2020, 5.2 in 2025 and 5.5 quad in 2030, but Canada has one of the highest hydro capacity in the world.
“Sustained high prices for oil and natural gas encourage expanded use of renewable fuels” which are “attractive for environmental reasons,” and the DOE report says government “policies and incentives to increase renewable energy sources for electricity generation are expected to encourage the development of renewable energy even when it cannot compete economically with fossil fuels.”
The U.S. projections for Canada do not include non-marketed sources of energy, of which solar thermal and off-grid wind and solar PV are major components.
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