Rapidly evolving markets will continually invest in their military spending and only due to challenging implementation of ambitious modernisation and indigenization programmes the expenditures will increase at a low pace and volume. Despite varying agendas, there will be a sharp increase in their military spending over the next 10 years. The financial slowdown and transitioning markets notwithstanding, the defence budgets will continue to be high due to armed forced reorganization, rising threat perceptions, territorial disputes, and porous borders.
Recent analysis from Frost & Sullivan of the defence budgets of 10 selected countries Algeria, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Japan, Oman, Poland, Russia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Rapidly Evolving Defence Markets: 10-country Budget Assessment, finds that the 10 countries are expected to spend more than $3.41 trillion on defence between 2013 and 2022.
“Fleet renewal and modernisation programmes will be among the biggest drivers stimulating defence expenditures among the countries considered,” said Frost & Sullivan Aerospace and Defence Research Analyst Alix Leboulanger. “Another significant trend is the strong push to boost the nascent or developing domestic defence industry through strong initiatives such as high-end technology procurement.”
Although there is much interest in modernization and indigenization programs, the challenges involved in implementation will mean that budgets will increase only at a slow pace. Yet, a closer look at the defence sector dynamics of each country reveals that the political intent to strengthen their defence sector is stronger than actual financial capabilities.
The countries most affected by the financial slowdown, such as Brazil or Poland, are forecast to increase their defence expenditures at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.30 percent and 1.08 percent respectively.
On the other hand, Japan is expected to account for at least 20.0 percent of the total spending between 2013 and 2014. Algeria represented almost 4.30 percent of the total spending in 2013 and is expected to increase that share to 7.21 percent by 2022.
Owing to numerous domestic and international trends that are constricting defence budgets, governments are resorting to acquiring high-end foreign technology to fulfil three objectives: complete modernisation programs, consolidate domestic industrial base, and provide employment to locals.
“These acquisitions explain the close link between procurements and transfers of technology (ToT) in defence, in line with offset policies, as demonstrated in Brazil, India and Poland,” noted Leboulanger. “While most offset policies encourage ToTs across the defence segments, governments are also looking to use these policies to reinforce the local civil industry, as in the case of the UAE.”
If you are interested in more information on this study, please send an email to Edyta Grabowska, Corporate Communications, at edyta.grabowska[.]frost.com.
Rapidly Evolving Defence Markets: 10-country Budget Assessment is part of the Defence (defense.frost.com) Growth Partnership Service program. Frost & Sullivan’s related studies include: Global Helicopter & Systems Market: Capturing Growth Opportunities across the Rotorcraft Industry, Emerging Applications for Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) Across Global Government and Commercial Sectors, Global Commercial UAS Market Assessment and US Air Traffic Management and Automatic Dependent Surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) Technology. All studies included in subscriptions provide detailed market opportunities and industry trends evaluated following extensive interviews with market participants.
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Rapidly Evolving Defence Markets: 10-country Budget Assessment - M9C4-16