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Market Commentary for December 21, 2006 from Millennium-Traders.com - Written for day traders, active traders and investors. A review of the market activity for the day, economic data plus, world news
Market Commentary for December 21, 2006 from Millennium-Traders.com

 

PRZOOM - /newswire/ - Somerset, PA, United States, 2006/12/21 - Written for day traders, active traders and investors. A review of the market activity for the day, economic data plus, world news.

   
 
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As expected, trading ranges were very firm today with light trading volume. Most investors and traders, who have not left ahead of the holiday, will be doing so today or tomorrow. Trading is expected to be fairly light tomorrow with a slim chance of a Santa Claus rally after today’s losses. Here is how the major indices ended today’s session: the DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) shed 42.62 points to close at 12421.25; the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) gave up 28.27 points to close at 9100.61; the NASDAQ lost 11.76 points to end at 2415.85 for the day; the S&P 500 was lower by 5.22 points to close at 1418.31 and the RUSSELL 2000 gave up 2.68 points to close at 782.90. The FTSE All-World Index ex-US (top Large/Mid Cap aggregate from over 2,700 stocks from the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) which covers 90% of the worlds investable market capitalization) moved lower by 0.63 to close at 238.03 and the FTSE RAFI 1000 moved lower by 18.82 points to close at 5894.65.

Economic data released for the day:

Corporate Profits: Reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), a summary of the income of organizations treated as corporations in the national income and products accounts. Report contains profits from current production known as operating or economic profits; corporate profits with inventory valuations and capital consumption adjustment. Differences in depreciation allowances used for accounting and income tax purposes are part of Capital Consumption. IVA (inventory valuation adjustment) deals with the difference in measuring the cost of inventory replacement. Book profits amount to operating profits and subtracting inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. After tax profits are book profits after taxes are deducted. Third Quarter Corporate Profits rose by 4.2% versus an increase of 0.3% in second quarter and Third Quarter Corporate Profits were revised to an increase of 4.2% from an increase of 4.6%.

GDP (final): Gross Domestic Product (GDP) encompasses every sector of the economy and is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity. U.S. Third Quarter GDP was revised to an increase of 2.0% from an increase of 2.2% and U.S. Third Quarter GDP Consensus was an increase of 2.2%.

Jobless Claims: A weekly compilation of new unemployment claims to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The condition of the labor market is determined by an increase of the number of claims which suggests a deteriorating labor market. U.S. Jobless Claims rose by 9K to 315K for week of December 16th compared to survey of an increase of 16K; U.S. Continuing Claims for week of December 9th rose by 45K to 2,520,000 and U.S. Continuing Claims at highest level since January 28th.

Leading Indicators: Ten economic indicators are compiled by the Conference Board that should lead overall economic activity. In the past 30 years the data has been revised many times especially when it has not done a good job of predicting turning points in the economy. Third Quarter Chain-Weighted Price Index was revised to an increase of 1.9% from an increase of 1.8%; Third Quarter Purchases Price Index was revised to an increase of 2.2% from an increase of 2.1%; Third Quarter PCE Price Index rose 2.4%, unrevised from preliminary report and Third Quarter Real Final Sales were revised to an increase of 1.9% from an increase of 2.1%. U.S. Conference Board November Leading Index rose by 0.1%; U.S. Conference Board November Coincident Index rose by 0.2% and U.S. Conference Board November Lagging Index rose by 0.5%.

EIA Natural Gas Report: Weekly information provided by the EIA (Energy Information Administration) on natural gas stock piles in underground storage in the United States and three regions of the country. Prices for natural gas products are determined by the level of inventories. Natural Gas Inventory fell by 71 Bcf to 3167 Bcf compared to analysts consensus of a draw of 75 Bcf, ranging from a draw of 38-100 Bcf.

Philadelphia Fed Survey: Philadelphia Federal Reserve district releases general conditions index from the business outlook survey which is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions in the district. Philadelphia Fed Survey: December New Orders fell by 2.4 versus November drop by 3.7; December Employment came in at 7.9 versus November reading at 0.2; December Price was received at 9.9 versus November reading of 5.7; December Price Paid 20.6 versus November 26.7 and December Business Index fell by 4.3 versus November reading of 5.1.

Chicago Fed Index 3-Month average fell by 0.32 in November versus a drop by 0.22 in October and Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell by 0.26 in November versus a drop by 0.30 in October.

Jeffrey M. Lacker, President Reserve Bank of Richmond commented today: main economic risks from housing, oil prices; labor markets are currently 'tight'; housing slowdown won't create recession; 'tentative' signs housing demand stabilizing; expects continued 'healthy wage gains'; job market to continue to expand in 2007; housing sector to remain drag on 2007 economy; sees strong consumer, business spending in 2007; 2006 inflation data 'disappointing'; moderation in inflation not yet evident and higher inflation remains chief economic risk. He added that he is not overly worried by low U.S. savings rate and that the U.S. trade deficit must eventually move lower.

On the commodities markets, the trend was mostly lower across the board today: Light crude moved lower by $0.92 to close at $62.80 a barrel; Heating Oil closed lower by $0.01 at $1.76 a gallon; Natural Gas moved higher by $0.05 to end the day at $7.06 per million BTU and Unleaded Gas closed with no change at $1.68 a gallon.

Metals ended the session mixed across the board again today: Gold moved lower by $2.70 to close at $621.60 an ounce; Silver closed lower by $0.16 at $12.49 an ounce; Platinum moved higher again today by $8.10 to close at $1,133.50 an ounce and Copper ended the day lower by $0.07 to close at $2.88 per pound.

On the Livestock and Meat markets, the trend was mostly lower across the board today: Lean Hogs closed higher by 0.25 at 62.70; Pork Bellies closed lower by 0.03 to end the day at 92.55; Live Cattle closed lower by 0.48 to end the day at 89.88 and Feeder Cattle ended the day lower by 0.35 to close at 96.40.

Other Commodities: Corn moved higher by 5.50 today to close at 378.25 and Soybeans moved higher by 2.00 to close at 665.50.

Bonds were nicely higher across the board today: 2 year Bond closed higher by 3/32 at 99 29/32; 5 year bond closed higher by 6/32 at 99 28/32; 10 year bond closed higher by 10/32 at 100 16/32 and the 30 year bond closed higher by 15/32 at 96 27/32.

The end of day results for the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) which is comprised of the total Exchange Volume for Futures and Options (EVFO) including Electronic, Open Auction and Cash Exchange ended the day at 2,622,754. Open Interest for Futures moved lower by 45,439 to close at 8,557,961 and the Open Interest for Options moved higher by 45,940 to close at 7,140,310 for a total Open Interest of 15,698,373 for a total gain on the day by 501. The mini Dow ended the session with a loss of 43 to close at 12501. The total Dow Exchange Volume for the day came in at 106,620 which are comprised of Electronic, Open Auction and Cash Exchange. Traders should review workshops available at the CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) Educational in-person seminars schedules available on CBOT (Chicago Board of Trade) website.

 
 
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Market Commentary for December 21, 2006 from Millennium-Traders.com

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