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Market Commentary for November 16, 2006 from - Written for day traders, active traders and investors. A review of the market activity for the day, economic data plus, world news
Market Commentary for November 16, 2006 from


PRZOOM - /newswire/ - Somerset, PA, United States, 2006/11/16 - Written for day traders, active traders and investors. A review of the market activity for the day, economic data plus, world news.

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The trading session proved to be a whipotile trend for day traders and investors alike today. The NASDAQ bounced in and out of the red zone until the early afternoon session where it was moved by the Bulls as were most other major indices. Trading volume was heavy today and trading ranges appeared improved amidst the whip trend that kept day traders on their toes. At the closing bell, here is how the major indices ended the session: the DOW (Dow Jones Industrial Average) posted a gain of 54.11 points to close at 12305.82; the NYSE fell by 7.07 points to close at 8894.48; the NASDAQ pushed higher by 6.31 points to end the day at 2449.06; the S&P 500 climbed higher by a mere 3.84 points to end at 1400.41 and the RUSSELL 2000 fell by 1.11 points to close at 790.85. The FTSE All-World Index ex-US (top Large/Mid Cap aggregate from over 2,700 stocks from the FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) which covers 90% of the worlds investable market capitalization) moved higher by 0.24 to close at 231.56 and the FTSE RAFI 1000 moved higher by 16.67 points to close at 5824.87.

Economic data released for the day:
Consumer Price Index: The measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers; monthly changes represent the rate of inflation. U.S. October CPI energy prices fell by 7.0%, food prices rose by 0.3%; U.S. October CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.1% versus consensus of an expected rise by 0.2% and U.S. October consumer prices fell by 0.5% versus consensus of a drop of 0.3%.

Jobless Claims: A weekly compilation of new unemployment claims to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. The condition of the labor market is determined by an increase of the number of claims which suggests a deteriorating labor market. U.S. week of November 4th Jobless Claims were revised to 310K from 308K; U.S. week of November 4th Continuing Claims were unchanged at 2,443,000; U.S. Jobless Claims fell by 2K to 308K for week of November 11th compared to survey of a rise by 3K and U.S. real average weekly earnings rose by 1.3% in October.

Treasury International Capital: The flow of financial instruments into and out of the United States is tracked by this Treasury data. Tracking is included for: Treasury Securities, agency securities, corporate bonds and corporate equities. Foreign demand for long-term U.S. Securities came in at $65.1 billion.

Industrial Production: The physical output of the nation’s factories, utilities and mines. The Industrial sector accounts for less than one fifth of the economy with a mostly cyclical variation. The usage of available resources amount utilities, mines and factories is the capacity utilization rate. A warning sign of inflationary pressure is detected by an increase operating rate. U.S. September Industrial Production was unrevised at a drop of 0.6%; U.S. September Capacity Use was revised to 82.1% from 81.9%; U.S. October Capacity Utilization rose by 0.1 point at 82.2% versus consensus of 82.0% and U.S. October Industrial Production rose by 0.2% versus consensus of a rise by 0.3%.

EIA Natural Gas Report: Weekly information provided by the EIA (Energy Information Administration) on natural gas stock piles in underground storage in the United States and three regions of the country. Prices for natural gas products are determined by the level of inventories. Weekly change for week of November 11th came in at 5 Bcf.

Philadelphia Fed Survey: Philadelphia Federal Reserve district releases general conditions index from the business outlook survey which is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions in the district. November Business Index was 5.1 versus a drop in October by 0.7; November Business Index was expected at 5; November New Orders fell by 3.7 versus October reading of 13.4; November Employment came in at 0.2 versus October reading of 9.4; November Price Received came in at 5.7 versus October reading of 17.8 and November Price Paid came in at 26.7 versus October reading of 32.0.

NAHB-WF Housing Market Index: Compiled by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), a housing market index is based on a survey in which respondents are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions. The housing market index is a weighted average of separate diffusion indexes for the present sales of new homes, sale of new homes expected over the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers for new homes. NAHB Housing Market Index came in at actual reading of 33.

Comments from William Poole, President of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Fed must promote price stability; Fed should be reluctant to deal with market trouble; GSE current capitalization is inadequate; GSE supervision is inadequate; GSE’s pose big risk to financial system; GSE’s should be fully privatized; Hedge Funds risk 'vastly over-rated'; inflation is controllable by Fed and that price stability aids financial stability.

Comments from Michael H. Moskow, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Additional policy firming may be needed; Core CPI moving in right direction; Core Inflation has been too high; could take long time for Core PCE to go below 2%; FOMC members agree inflation is main concern; great deal of funds available for investment; haven't seen excesses in dot-com sector; high-inflation risk exceeds slow-growth risk; housing not causing prolonged U.S. economic weakness; inflation concerns may spur rate hikes; inflation expectations appear contained; interest rate decision depends on incoming data; key is whether CPI trend can be sustained; must be vigilant monitoring inflation expectations; negative employment effect from minimum wage hike; optimistic about fundamentals of U.S. economy; seems to be ample liquidity in the economy; Social Security, Medicare need to be addressed and today's CPI is one month, doesn't make trend.

On the commodities markets, the trend was mixed across the board today: Light crude fell by $2.50 to close at $56.26 a barrel; Brent Crude ended the day on Wednesday with a gain of $0.62 to close at $59.46 a barrel; Heating Oil closed lower by $0.04 to close at $1.71 a gallon; Natural Gas ended the day lower by $0.30 to end the day at $8.17 per million BTU and Unleaded Gas closed at $1.53 a gallon with a loss of $0.05.

Metals ended the session mixed across the board again today: Gold fell by $2.10 to close at $621.70 an ounce; Silver closed with no change at $12.95 an ounce; Platinum moved higher by $18.50 to close at $1,189.30 an ounce and Copper ended the day lower by $0.05 to close at $3.08 per pound.

On the Livestock and Meat markets, the trend was higher across the board today: Lean Hogs moved higher by 1.38 to close at 65.53; Pork Bellies closed higher by 1.35 to end the day at 91.00; Live Cattle moved higher by 1.55 to end the day at 90.75 and Feeder Cattle ended the day higher by 3.00 to close at 98.20.

Other Commodities: Corn fell by 6.50 to close at 366.00 and Soybeans moved lower by 7.25 to close at 656.50.

Bonds were lower across the board again today: 2 year Bond closed with a loss of 2/32 at 100 1/32; 5 year bond closed lower by 7/32 to close at 99 24/32; 10 year bond moved lower by 11/32 to end the day at 99 11/32 and the 30 year bond closed lower by 20/32 at 96 6/32.

The end of day results for the CBOT which is comprised of the total Exchange Volume for Futures and Options (EVFO) including Electronic, Open Auction and Cash Exchange ended the day at 3,768,589. Open Interest for Futures fell by 13,358 to close at 8,848,824 and the Open Interest for Options moved higher by 133,148 to close at 8,439,344 for a total Open Interest of 17,288,168 for a total gain on the day by 119,790.

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