Frost & Sullivan expects Malaysia's total industry volume (TIV) to increase at 1.2 per cent year-on-year to 612,000 units in 2012 due to the uncertain global economic outlook, limited new mass market model launches and concerns on loan approval rate
Mr. Kavan Mukhtyar, Partner & Head of the Automotive & Transportation Practice, Asia Pacific at Frost & Sullivan said that TIV in 2012 will be driven by the C-segment (mid-sized sedans), supported by promising growth in the D-segment (premium & large sedans).
Mr. Mukhtyar said that hybrids will continue on a high growth path in 2012 due to the extended duty exemption, new models in the pipeline and growing customer acceptance.
He added that the price gap between gasoline vehicle and hybrids is reducing. "Gasoline-fuelled vehicles are probably just 15-20 per cent cheaper than hybrids of equivalent range. It makes financial sense for consumers to go for fuel efficient hybrid vehicles," he said.
He predicts sales in 2012 to increase 60.9 per cent to 13,400 units.
He said that the D-segment (premium & large sedans) will be the fastest growing segment, increasing 23 per cent year-on-year to 35,300 units in 2012, driven by recovery sales as the automotive supply chain returns to normalcy.
"The expected launch of new key models such as Toyota Camry, Kia Optima, Volvo V60 and BMW M5 is also likely to drive sales in the D-segment," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
Sales in the B-segment (small & compact cars) are likely to grow 2.2 per cent year-on-year to 98,800 units in 2012, driven by the Perodua Myvi, Suzuki Swift, and Ford Fiesta.
"Stringent loans and credit control are expected to affect the purchase of entry-level vehicles in the A (sub-compact cars) and B segments," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
He foresees sales in the A-segment (sub-compact cars) will continue to shrink in 2012 due to limited models offered. He added that there is an increasing trend of first time buyers opting directly for B or C segment models.
Sales in the C-segment (mid-sized sedans) are expected to increase 3.8 per cent year-on-year to 238,300 units in 2012 due to the key new launches Proton P3-21A, Hyundai Elantra and Honda Civic, along with the robust sales from Proton Saga and increasing sales of hybrids.
Demand for multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs) is expected to decline 10.1 per cent year-on-year to 83,100 units in 2012 as customers experience model fatigue.
Sales for sports utility vehicles (SUVs) are likely to grow 11 per cent year-on-year to 25,900 units in 2012 due to a range of new models with attractive design and features such as Livina X-Gear, Santa FE, Kia Sportage, Hyundai Tucson and Mitsubishi Pajero Sports VGT.
2011 Vehicle Sales Review
Frost & Sullivan expects vehicle sales in 2011 to end at 605,000 units, declining at a nominal 0.02 per cent year-on-year due to the supply chain disruptions from the Japan earthquake and Thailand floods.
"2011 was a volatile year for the global automotive sector, due to unforeseen natural disasters and global economic uncertainty," Mr. Mukhtyar said.
Sales of SUVs were the strongest among all vehicle segments, increasing 49.5 per cent year-on-year in 2011, driven by sales of Hyundai Tucson, Mitsubishi ASX, Hyundai Santa Fe and Nissan Livina X-gear as consumers switched from D-segment due to the supply constraints," he said.
He added that there is a significant decline in the D-segment sales in 2011, falling 30.2 per cent year-on-year to 28,692 units due to the halt in production for Toyota Camry and Honda Accord as supply chains were disrupted from the Thai floods and Japan's earthquake and tsunami. The discontinuation of Proton Perdana also contributed to the decline.
Mr. Mukhtyar said that growth in the pick-up segment was driven by Toyota Hilux due to increasing demand in dual applications (commercial and personal use).
Passenger vehicles market share by OEMs in 2011
Mr. Mukhtyar said that in the passenger vehicles market, Perodua (Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd) continues to maintain its pole position in 2011 with an estimated 34.3 per cent market share. Meanwhile, Proton Holdings Bhd's market share in the passenger vehicles segment in 2011 grew 0.2 per cent to an estimated 29.1 per cent due to the robust sales of Saga, Persona and Inspira.
In the non-national car segment, Toyota's market share in the passenger vehicle segment is likely to decline marginally by 1.2 percentage points to 11.9 per cent in 2011, while Honda's market share is likely to decline 2 percentage points to 6.2 per cent due to impact of Japan earthquake and Thai floods.
Korean carmakers Kia and Hyundai are slowly gaining market share, supported by the launch of their new SUVs and sedans with attractive features and value-for-money.
Commercial vehicles market share by OEMs in 2011
Mr. Mukhtyar added that the pick-up segment registered a 9.8 per cent year-on-year growth in 2011. Toyota continued its dominance in the commercial vehicles segment with a 36.8 per cent market share in 2011 due to strong sales in pick-up truck segment through Toyota Hilux.
Isuzu is likely to increase its market share in the commercial vehicles segment by 3.7 percentage points to 13.7 per cent, driven by the introduction of the N-series light truck. Nissan's market share likely declined 3 percentage points to 10.4 per cent due to the discontinuation of its best-selling Vanette.
About Frost & Sullivan
Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best-in-class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The company's Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO's Growth Team with disciplined research and best-practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages 50 years of experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from more than 40 offices on six continents.